Beijing is coming to the end of a long seven years of destruction, construction, reform and challenges in preparation for an event that marks one the biggest milestones in modern history. With exactly one month to go until 08.08:08pm on the 8th of the 8th, 2008, the whole world will be watching, praising and criticising Beijing. So what’s going to happen after the Olympic fever dies down? 2009 is arguably going to be far more interesting. But why?

the lottery of numbers

To Westerners, the date 08/08/08 has little significance other than it’s aesthetically pleasing and is a nice coincidence. However, in China (as some may know from a popular HSBC advert that ran in the UK) the number 8 is considered extremely lucky. So a date such as the opening ceremony of the Olympics is really rather special indeed. But where there’s good luck, there’s bad luck. The number 13 is so unlucky that, in some cases, floor 13 ceases to exist in certain skyscrapers. The number 4 (四) is also to be avoided as much as possible on license plates and in phone numbers as it shares its pronunciation with ’si’ (死), meaning death.

Whilst 2009 should be considered a lucky year (9 bringing good luck as it sounds the same as the Chinese for ‘long-lasting’ - 久), there is reason for those who are superstitious within the government to be on edge. According to some Sinologists, following the trends of large-scale protests in China in years ending in ‘9′, such as the demonstrations of 1919 and 1989, Chinese superstition would justify erring on the side of caution. That’s not to say of course that, just because we’re about to enter into 2009, we’re due for civil unrest!

However, it is true to say that 2009 could arguably be a more interesting year, politically, culturally and economically than 2008.

superwealth

It’s important to remember that China’s new place within the world doesn’t rest on internal economic growth alone. Following presidential elections in the U.S. this November and the inauguration of a president with a new foreign policy (one that is more likely to give in to gentle pressure from a new generation of isolationists who would prefer less involvement in world affairs), we could see China climb the superpower ladder faster than we expected, something the American is most likely scared of, as the above picture from the front cover of the international magazine ‘The Economist’ cheekily demonstrates.

New wealth means new culture. As has already been apparent by the rise of a new middle class of Chinese people over the last few years. The demand from the new middle classes of Western goods and lifestyles has given birth to a fascinating sub-culture in China. Today, I happened across a news item on French television that featured a little girl who was a budding future Olympic gymnast in Wuhan. I knew the ‘看法’ (outlook) of the new generation had well and truly changed in China when she declared that it was a BMW that she wanted more than anything else in life, rather than her achieving her dream of becoming an Olympic athlete.

Additionally, there have been reports in the Western media of the cost of living in Beijing rocketing to astronomical levels. Yes, hotel prices are now almost on a par with the likes of London and it’s true you can pick up a (real) Louis Vuitton handbag in Beijing for in excess of $4000, but you can still eat for as little as $0.50 a day. Why? Because of the army of migrant workers from other parts of China who have travelled thousands of miles to construct Beijing in preparation for the Olympics and, with them, they’ve brought their own micro economy. As the gap between those of wealth and citizens of a less well off background grows notable larger, the government will have a the delicate job of satisfying two entirely different classes with different needs and different social structures. Will this lead to a decline in the otherwise laissez-faire economic policy we’ve seen so far?

nationalism

The final factor to consider is that of Nationalism. Pride in one’s country has always been very strong in China, extremely strong in same cases. Some historians have argued that the one of the reasons the Nationalists lost to the Communists during the Chinese civil war was because the Communists were actually better at being Nationalists than the Nationalists were!

In the run up to Beijing 2008, new sayings and expressions have risen in Chinese that stress huge importance on how the Olympics must be a success and a good impression of China must be painted. But, the question is, after the sporting dust has settled and China yet again develops in a new direction, where will all the nationalism go? Who/what will it rally around?

Contrary to popular opinion, perhaps power really does lie within the people in China - despite a lack of democracy. It could be argued the nationalism could potentially go so strong, the government themselves fears the people - not the other way round - as, if the government does something that could harm the masses and is ‘un-patriotic’, this cultivated nationalism could turn against them.

This is the delicate balancing act of 2009, a year which I will watch unfold with upmost fascination.

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